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Forecasting with Intervention: Tourism in Croatia

Tourism is among the most vulnerable business activities. It could be affected by political crisis, outbreak of the disease, economic crisis and war activities. In Croatia, the war for independence in 1991 affected tourism seriously. The number of foreign tourist has fallen more than 85% in 1992, compared with 1989. But, there were another interventions: the military action “ Storm” in August 1995 for deliberation of occupied Croatian territories and NATO strike in 1999 against Serbia, connected with Kosovo crisis. Although NATO action was not conducted on Croatian territory, the action had impact on Croatian tourism.

Forecasting; Intervention; X-12 ARIMA; TRAMO/SEATS

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