engleski

Epistemic Luck and Lottery Paradox

If belief is true by chance it is not knowledge. If justified belief is true by chance it is still not knowledge. (A guy beliefs it is 22oC because thermostat shows 22oC, it is 22oC, but thermostat is blocked at 22oC. A guy beliefs he has 1/2 tank of gas because fuel indicator shows 1/2 tank, he has half tank of gas, but fuel indicator is blocked at 1/2.) However, even cases of genuine knowledge contain element of luck. (Another guy beliefs it is 22oC because thermostat shows 22oC, it is 22oC, and thermostat is fully operational. Another guy beliefs he has 1/2 tank of gas because fuel indicator shows 1/2 tank, he has half tank of gas, and fuel indicator is fully operational.) What is the difference between fist two guys and other two? First two guys do not know, while other two guys do know! How is that possible? Internally there is no difference between them, the epistemically relevant difference is external. First two guys have bad epistemic luck, while second two guys have good epistemic luck. Although there are several different senses of epistemic luck, we can define relevant sense of epistemic luck in terms of epistemic duties: A subject has good epistemic luck iff after (because) he performs all of his epistemic duties to find out whether p, he knows that p. A subject has bad epistemic luck iff after (because) he performs all of his epistemic duties to find out whether p, he still does not know that p. In the Lottery case: first guy knows that his ticket will not win, second guy knows that his ticket will not win, ... nth guy does not know that his ticket will not win because his ticket will win. The nth guy has bad epistemic luck, but he compensates it with good financial luck. This shows that even when we know, we can not know that we know.

Luck; Knowledge; Epistemology; Truth; Belief; Justification; Chance

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