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Predicting Extinction in Salmon: How Far Can We Trust the Models?

Mathematical models can be used to estimate the extinction risk. The best model is that which most accurately captures the mechanics of population fluctuation. We can trust a model as far as we trust our own understanding of the population. Any forecast of a population trajectory is based, either explicitly or implicitly, on a model of the population. In extreme cases, an explicit analysis may not be necessary to justify legal listing, and will only confirm what is already obvious. Models of salmonids have been, and will continue to be, useful in monitoring the health of randomly fluctuating populations and in assessing the relative efficacy of candidate- management plans. Accurate models will be easier to develop for salmonids than for most other animals or plants, because of the wealth of information collected on this economically important group. Results of past modeling efforts suggest that some stocks of coho salmon are in danger of extinction, and should be given federal status as threatened or endangered.

salmon; extinction; population viability analysis; Washington; Oregon; USA

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