engleski

Reliability model of different wind power plant configuration using sequential Monte Carlo simulation

Paper presents an enhanced model for calculation of reliability indices for different wind power plants configuration concepts used over past two decades. The autoregressive – moving average (ARMA) model is used combined with the sequential Monte Carlo simulation in order to predict expected energy not served (EENS) more accurately during the failure. Statistical database of LWK (Land Wirtschafts Kammer) is used for determining different wind power plant configuration types component reliability (performance) used for calculating influence of individual wind power plant configuration concepts on expected energy not served. Furthermore, a comparison of the distribution of EENS of different wind power plants configuration concepts have been presented, as well as the influence of the predominantly mechanical and electrical components failures on both EENS and failure rates.

wind turbine ; components ; reliability ; failure rate ; Monte Carlo ; ARMA

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