engleski

Statistical Models relating geomagnetic Activity to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are very important in terms of space weather because they can be highly geoeffective. As part of the FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles: forecasting the space weather impact), a statistical analysis is being carried out in order to investigate the impact of CME parameters and their associations to geomagnetic storms. A list of 225 front‐sided, flare associated CMEs, with a minimal speed of 400 km/s, were randomly selected from the LASCO/SOHO catalog and associated with a specific Dst (disturbance storm time) index. This way a sample was made containing both geoeffective, non‐ geoeffective and CMEs which missed the Earth. The last was derived using the in‐situ data and CME‐ICME‐Dst list made by Richardson&Cane (2010). Statistical analysis was then applied to detect relationships between CME parameters, such as speed, width, source region location, brightness, and the Dst value. In case of flare related CMEs, the X‐ray intensity and class were also included. We also investigated how much the occurrence of multiple CMEs increases the probability of large Dst values.

space weather ; coronal mass ejections ; geomagnetic storms

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