engleski

Testing and improvement of the CME Geomagnetic Forecast Tool (CGFT)

The CME Geomagnetic Forecast Tool (CGFT) is one of the forecast tools implemented in the COMESEP alert system, an automated space weather alert system developed within the FP7 project COMESEP running since January 2014 at http://comesep.eu/alert/. The CGFT provides an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geoeffectiveness, based on CME parameters, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration. More specifically, CME geoeffectiveness is estimated based on the CME width and speed, source position and X-ray class of the associated flare and expressed using Disturbance storm time (Dst) index. The CGFT was “fine- tuned” to the automated detection tools used in the COMESEP alert system, namely CACTus (CME detection), Solardemon, and Flaremail (flare detection). Furthermore, additional analysis of the statistical properties of CME geoeffectiveness was performed in order to improve threshold values for the different Dst storm levels. We compare these changes to the estimations provided by already issued alerts and evaluate CME geoeffectiveness forecast on an independent sample. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252), “Dynamics of the Solar System” association’s research grant (at Royal Observatory of Belgium), and Croatian science foundation.

Coronal mass ejections ; Solar flares ; Geomagnetic storms

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