engleski

Does Europe’s wind show signs of the solar cycle?

Persistent long-timescale links between solar activity and regional climate variability have been suggested by paleoclimatic studies. Despite this, evidence of such links has been difficult to identify in modern climate datasets, which are available for only a few solar cycles. Often, reported relationships have proven to be false-positives. These are common due to the high-variability inherent in climatological data, coupled with insufficient statistical analyses employed by investigators. We have utilized a long (130 yr) series of synoptic conditions from ground-based observations, recorded over central Germany. These data cover more than 12 solar cycles, and may provide verification of a regional solar–climate link in observational datasets, extending from a time when widespread systematic meteorological observations had a limited coverage, to the current-era. The long-timescales of these data enhances our ability to identify low-amplitude signals. Furthermore, its later concurrency with modern-era data enables us to compare our findings to a plethora of relevant and current datasets. We have used robust Monte Carlo methods to identify the variability expected under non-deterministic (random) cases, against which solar cycle related samples are examined, with intriguing results.

solar activity; climate; wind; atmospheric circulation

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