engleski

Satellite retrieved cloud data limitations and the evaluation of a solar—cloud link

A hypothesized link between the solar-modulated cosmic ray (CR) flux and the Earth’s cloud properties is still the subject of intense debate. Numerous authors have examined a hypothesized link between CR and clouds during Forbush decrease events using daily timescale epoch-superpositional (composite) methods. However, such studies have arrived at a range of conflicting results. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulation techniques, we demonstrate that for the two most widely used satellite cloud datasets, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), high noise levels present in composites of small sample sizes or and/or overly isolated sample areas, coupled with incorrect methods of assessing significance may account for the inconsistent results. From our quantification of sample uncertainty we review some of the important investigations which have claimed to identify a significant solar – cloud link, and conclude that no strong evidence to support this hypothesis has yet been identified from satellite observations.

clouds; cosmic rays; Forbush decreases; epoch-superpositional analysis; Monte Carlo

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