engleski

The Hvar Observatory CME-Effectiveness Forecast Tools

We present two simple online forecast tools that estimate a possible geo-effective and GCR-effective impact of the observed CME based on the remote solar observations. The CME Geo-effectiveness Forecast Tool (CGeFT) estimates the expected disturbance storm time (Dst) index amplitude range, whereas the Forbush decrease Forecast Tool (FDFT) estimates the expected Forbush decrease (FD) amplitude range. Both tools are based on the empirical probabilistic models, developed using the statistically derived relations between remote solar observations and Dst amplitude (CGeFT), i.e. Forbush decrease amplitude (FDFT). The input parameters for both tools are CME speed and apparent width, the source position and soft X-ray class of the associated flare and estimated CME-CME interaction parameter (likeliness of interaction with another CME). The output is a probability distribution for a Dst/FD level, based on which the expected Dst/FD range is given. The evaluation of both tools is given and discussed, as well as the feasibility of the FDFT to improve the forecast of CGeFT. We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 „Solar and Stellar Variability“ and of European social fond under the project “PoKRet”.

coronal mass ejections ; geomagnetic storms ; Forbush decreases

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