engleski

VALIDATION OF THE CME ARRIVAL TIME AND GEOMAGNETIC FORECAST ALERTS UNDER COMESEP

Under the EU FP7 project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Par- ticles: http://comesep.aeronomy.be), an automated space weather alert system has been developed to forecast solar energetic particles (SEP) and coronal mass ejection (CME) risk levels at Earth. COMESEP Alert System uses automated detection tool CACTus to detect potentially threatening CMEs, drag- based model (DBM) to predict their arrival and CME geo- effectiveness tool (CGFT) to predict their geomagnetic impact. Whenever CACTus de- tects a halo or partial halo CME, DBM calculates its arrival time at Earth and CGFT calculates its geomagnetic risk level, based on an estimation of the CME arrival probability and its likely geo-effectiveness, as well as an estimate of the geomagnetic-storm duration. We present the first results of an ongoing evaluation of the CME risk level forecast with COMESEP Alert System based on a study of geo-effective CMEs observed during 2014- 2015. The validation of the forecast tool is done by comparing the forecasts and observation. In addition, we test the success rate of the automatic forecast (without human intervention) against the forecast with human intervention using advanced versions of DBM and CGFT (self standing tools available at Hvar Observatory website: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr). The first results implicate that the success rate of the forecast is higher with human intervention and using more advanced tools. We discuss these results and implications for possible improve- ment of the COMESEP Alert System. This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252). We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 "Solar and Stellar Variability" and of European social fund under the project "PoKRet".

coronal mass ejections ; spaceweather forecast

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