engleski

The Causes of Breast Cancer Incidence Growth in Croatia: Part I.

Breast cancer incidence in Croatia doubled from 30-60/100.000 during the 21-year period between 1968-1989. The authors carried out a population-based epidemiological study involving 21, 662 women diagnosed of having a primary breast cancer during that period in Croatia. The results revealed that the incidence growth was more pronounced after 1981, along with the unexplained outbreak of the incidence in 60-64 year age group, reaching values as high as 214/100.000. This outbreak is statistically significant as compared to the trends in other age groups (p<0.0001). After 1981, the relative incidence growth in this age group was 104% vs. total incidence growth of 35% (as compared to the period 1968-1981). The authors computed that the share of this outbreak in the total incidence growth is about 30%, while the remaining 70% can be attributed to the aging of the population in general and the improvement of the medical care, including better evidence of breast cancer cases. The study of incidence trends in various regions of Croatia revealed that the greatest relative growth of the incidence was recorded in economically less-developed regions (Gospić district), while the greatest absolute values of the incidence were recorded in the most developed regions (city of Zagreb and Rijeka district), but withsmall relative growth and possibly a tendency of stabilization.

breast cancer; incidence; Croatia; epidemiology; causal inference

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