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Application of Tetrachoric and Polychoric Correlation Coefficients to Forecast Verification (CROSBI ID 516735)

Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa

Pasarić, Zoran ; Juras, Josip Application of Tetrachoric and Polychoric Correlation Coefficients to Forecast Verification // Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8. Beč, 2006

Podaci o odgovornosti

Pasarić, Zoran ; Juras, Josip

engleski

Application of Tetrachoric and Polychoric Correlation Coefficients to Forecast Verification

A novel interpretation of contingency table that s used in forecast verification is proposed. The measure of association in 2 x 2 (K x K) contingency tables known as tetrachoric (polychoric) correlation coefficient is recalled. These measures rely on two assumptions which are reexamined: 1) there exist continuous latent variables underlying the contingency table and 2) joint distribution of corresponding standard normal deviates is bivariate normal. It is shown that, in practice, the tetrachoric (polychoric) correlation coefficient is an estimate of Pearson correlation coefficient between the latent variables. Consequently, these measures do not depend on bias nor on marginal frequencies of the table. The information carried by the contingency table is naturally and conveniently divided between association, bias and probability of the event, which may be used to asses quality of various forecasting systems and also compare forecasts produced by a single system over different climatological regions. In case of K x K tables, the eventual reduction in dimensionality from K*K to 2K is obtained. The theoretical findings are illustrated through analysis of real--life, 6 x 6 contingency tables on verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts.

cotingency table; quantitive precipitation forecast

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Podaci o prilogu

2006.

objavljeno

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 8

Beč:

Podaci o skupu

European Geosciences Union - General Assembly

poster

02.04.2006-07.04.2006

Beč, Austrija

Povezanost rada

Geologija

Poveznice