engleski

Innovation, Adoption and Dynamics of Total Factor Productivity Growth in the Croatian Tourism and Catering Sector 1960-2000

Croatia's tourism is an interesting case study of the sources of total factor productivity growth, in particular since changing external relations with relative autarky in socialist phase of development represent an experiment of forced protectionism, furthermore trade openness since 90th and liberalism is other extreme. Foreign spillover effects to TFP could be identified from relative measures of openness. Is there openness as a channel of spillover effects very useful in service sector as a tourism is wait to be see. The analysis investigates the importance of technological innovation versus adoption, and attempts at identifying key parameters of total factor productivity growth in Croatia's tourism and catering sector according to new growth theory: "scale effects and fishing out" based on Romer theoretical contributions. The tourism and catering sector time series for 1960-2000 covers a period of steady growth as well as political and economic turbulence and dramatic changes of the economic conditions of tourism industry. Econometric challenges due to endogenous of determinants (ratio of tourism investment in aggregated investment as a proxy for innovation, and ratio of tourism and catering GDP in aggregate GDP as a proxy for adoption) will be addressed, and distributed lag model and vector autoregressive estimation with concentrate inference to time series properties will be carried out.

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