engleski

Risk estimation in the process of construction project calculation

The paper deals with one of the possible methods of “ procedural” construction calculation and with the risk assessment in cost calculation of construction works projects. Project cost is being divided “ procedurally” according to their sensitivities to risk impact. Samples and cost groups from the division of their own relative components in the total project cost. We pre-suppose the possibility of determining the probability division of an individual risk impact on the alteration of an individual component of a project cost. Each cost component is matched by a division of relative deviations caused by an individual risk. The sensitivities of a cost component and of a total cost of construction project to an individual and all risk is analyzed by simulation of individual components in total project cost and I their corresponding to individual risk impacts. We get a population of accidental project cost with risk impact by a simulation. A cumulative frequency of total construction project cost with the calculated risk impact is going to enable the estimation of the final project cost, i.e. the cost component needed for a risk covering.

Business systems; Mesurable goals; Balanced scorecard; Project scorecard

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