engleski

Forecasting Tourism Demand in Croatia: A Disaggregated Analysis of Monthly Overnight Stays

The Croatian tourism industry has experienced a substantial rise over the recent years resulting in its continuously increasing significance for the overall economy. In light of that, this study estimates monthly time series intervention seasonal ARIMA models for the total number of tourist overnight stays as well for the overnight stays disaggregated into domestic and foreign components. The time series intervention seasonal ARIMA models include intervention variables for the 1995 military action by the Croatian authorities and the 1999 Kosovo crisis. Allowing for time-varying variance in the residuals of the intervention seasonal ARIMA models, in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts are generated for total, domestic, and foreign tourist overnight stays.

tourism forecasting; ARIMA models; ARCH models; Croatia

nije evidentirano