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A theory for the spinup of tropical depressions

Research Article A theory for the spinup of tropical depressions D. J. Raymond *, S. L. Sessions, . Fuchs New Mexico Tech, Socorro, USA email: D. J. Raymond (raymond@kestrel.nmt.edu) *Correspondence to D. J. Raymond, Physics Department and Geophysical Research Center, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM 87801 USA. Keywords tropical cyclogenesis • tropical depressions Abstract Recent advances in our understanding of the physics of precipitation over tropical oceans is married with vorticity dynamics to produce a simple theory for the development or non-development of tropical depressions. This early phase of tropical cyclogenesis is perhaps the least understood part of the whole process. The theory predicts a finite amplitude threshold for intensification, with weaker disturbances decaying. Furthermore, only disturbances with radii larger than a critical value develop. Rough estimates of this critical radius place it near 1600 km, though better estimates of various parameters could change this value significantly.

tropical cyclogenesis; tropical depressions

DOI 10.1002/qj.125