engleski

Unpleasant demographic changes: How great is the fiscal challange

This paper tries to assess the dimension of fiscal challenge posed by the greying of Croatian society in the next fifty years and is based on the report on fiscal implications of ageing population in Croatia recently released by The Institute of Economics, Zagreb. After the introduction, the authors briefly describe the main global demographic features and the demographic trends in Croatia. Following to that section, they indicate the developments on the labour market that could result from the underlying demographic developments. Based on certain macroeconomic assumptions and with reference to the impact of population ageing the authors present results of long-term projections of public expenditures for pensions and health care in Croatia. At the end, the impact of ageing on fiscal deficit and debt is sketched and final conclusions are drawn.

population ageing; fiscal implications; public pension system

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