engleski

Developing and Deploying Models for ARPU Forecasting

ARPU modelling comprises wide variety of models, principles and estimation phases. Reliable model for ARPU could be indispensable to understand the underlying forces and structure that produced the observed ARPU data and forecasting, monitoring or even feedback control. Time series modelling of ARPU does not explicitly take into account behaviour of competitor's ARPUs. Hypothesis which states that future value of all operators' ARPUs on the closed market depends linearly on the current values and on differences between observed competitors ARPU is verified, giving overall modelling of ARPU over time, smoothing of seasonal variations and the possibility of forecasting ARPU.

Pricing models; ARPU forecasting; Markov process

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