Nalazite se na CroRIS probnoj okolini. Ovdje evidentirani podaci neće biti pohranjeni u Informacijskom sustavu znanosti RH. Ako je ovo greška, CroRIS produkcijskoj okolini moguće je pristupi putem poveznice www.croris.hr
izvor podataka: crosbi

Downscaling of ECMWF ensemble forecasts for cases of severe weather : Ensemble statistics and cluster analysis (CROSBI ID 136333)

Prilog u časopisu | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija

Branković, Čedo ; Matjačić, Blaženka ; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan ; Buizza, Roberto Downscaling of ECMWF ensemble forecasts for cases of severe weather : Ensemble statistics and cluster analysis // Monthly weather review, 136 (2008), 9; 3323-3342. doi: 10.1175/2008MWR2322.1

Podaci o odgovornosti

Branković, Čedo ; Matjačić, Blaženka ; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan ; Buizza, Roberto

engleski

Downscaling of ECMWF ensemble forecasts for cases of severe weather : Ensemble statistics and cluster analysis

Dynamical downscaling has been applied to global ensemble forecasts to assess its impact for four cases of severe weather (precipitation and wind) over various parts of Croatia. It was performed with the Croatian 12.2-km version of the Aladin limited area model, nested in the ECMWF TL255 (approximately 80 km)global Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The 3-hourly EPS output was used to force the Aladin model over the central European/northern Mediterranean domain. Results indicate that the identical clustering algorithm may yield differing results when applied to either global or to downscaled ensembles. It is argued that this is linked to the fact that downscaled, higher-resolution ensemble resolves more explicitly small-scale features, in particular those strongly influenced by orographic forcing. This result has important implications in limited-area ensemble prediction, since it implies that downscaling may affect the interpretation or relevance of the global ensemble forecasts, i.e. it may not always be feasible to make a selection (or a subset) of global lower-resolution ensemble members that might be representative of all possible higher-resolution evolution scenarios.

dynamical downscaling; ensemble forecasts; severe weather; ECMWF; clustering; Aladin

nije evidentirano

nije evidentirano

nije evidentirano

nije evidentirano

nije evidentirano

nije evidentirano

Podaci o izdanju

136 (9)

2008.

3323-3342

objavljeno

0027-0644

10.1175/2008MWR2322.1

Povezanost rada

Geologija

Poveznice
Indeksiranost