engleski

A simulation of the formation of melanocytic nevi

Melanocytic nevi (moles) are common, and can be found anywhere on the skin. Their number has been shown to be associated with a greater risk of cutaneous melanoma. Also, the knowledge of their natural evolution is important in the understanding of the development of melanoma. The aim of this study was to incorporate available knowledge about melanocytic proliferation and the role of immune system and to create a simulation model which will be able to explain the changes in number of melanocytic nevi during lifetime and to elucidate the importance of the immune system in their formation and regression (i.e. eruptive benign melanocytic nevi). The results were presented graphically and visually analyzed. Because of the great number of possible numerical solutions only approximately results that satisfy some basic criteria were take into account. A created system dynamics model proved to be able to simulate the appearance and disappearance of melanocytic nevi during lifetime and the eruption of nevi after immunosuppression in a way that mimics their changes reported in epidemiological studies. There are limitations in model assumptions due to many uncertainties regarding model parameters and thus much more detailed epidemiological data would be required for the creation of a more reliable model.

Melanocytic nevi; Mutation; Immune system; Simulation model; System dynamics

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