engleski

Economic Risk Analysis in hydroponic strawberry production

Hydroponic strawberry has just recently become a way of strawberry production in Croatia. As such it opens lot of questions ranging from technology aspect and fruit’ s quality aspects to economics of production and marketing aspects. In line with previous, production, marketing and financial risk should be taken in consideration. The aim of this paper is to examine economic factors influencing the hydroponically grown strawberries and present risk analysis on different production systems and market strategies. The study commenced in the Zagreb County area is the base for production economics analysis. Economic effects of cold-stored runner plants (frigo) and tray plants (TP) of the cultivar “ Elsanta” will be evaluated. According to some preliminary results TP gives better economic results. On the other hand, sensitivity analysis showed that TP plans are riskier. In order to properly assess risk stochastic simulation will be applied. The purpose of simulation in risk analysis is to estimate distributions of economic returns for alternative strategies so the decision maker can make better management decisions. By use of distribution functions, yield, price and input costs as deterministic (static) variables will be modelled in the form of stochastic (uncertain) elements. @Risk software from Palisade will be used. After evaluation of tradeoffs between risk and returns and changes in expected returns, recommendation for risk management strategies will be given

business risks; risk management; stochastic simulation; strawberry; hydroponics

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