engleski

Croatian Economic Sentiment Indicator: New Components and a New Weighting System

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a composite indicator derived from Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS). Qualitative data on businessmen’ s and consumers’ perceptions of their economic environment are translated into quantitative indicators. These are: Industrial Confidence Indicator – ICI, Construction Confidence Indicator – BCI, Retail Trade Confidence Indicator – RTCI, Consumer Confidence Indicator – CCI and Services Confidence Indicator – SCI. All the indicators are calculated as a simple average of seasonally adjusted balances of two, three or four variables in BCS. These indicators are ESI components. BCS are qualitative surveys and widely used means for explaining and forecasting national economic activity. ESI makes it possible to forecast economic activity about one or two quarters before GDP statistics are published. Composite indicators must be occasionally revised in order to improve their prediction performance.

ESI-Economic Sentiment Indicator; ICI; BCI; RTCI; weighting system

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