engleski

Demand Modeling of German Tourists in Croatia : a Time-varying parameter approach

Traditional tourism demand analysis uses OLS or ML methods to estimate demand models, assuming that the parameters of the models remain constant over the sample period. This assumption is too restrictive, as it does not allow for behavioral changes of tourists over time. This paper proposes a new methodology— the time-varying parameter (TVP) approaches to tourism demand modeling. This method relaxes the assumption of parameter constancy, and the behavioral change of tourists over time is traced using a statistical estimator known as a Kalman filter. The appropriateness of the TVP approach to tourism demand modeling is then tested based on a data set of the demand for Croatia tourism by residents from Germany.

tourism demand; demand elasticity; time-varying parameter; Kalman filter; Croatia; Germany

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