engleski

The summer bioclimatic conditions at the Adriatic coast in 21st century

The tourism is one of the most important economy branches in Croatia and the influence of climate change can have great consequences on it. The objective of the paper is to investigate if the climate change can cause harmful impact on summer tourism in Croatia. In order to analyse a possible change of summer bioclimatic conditions at the Adriatic coast, the two sets of season-long integrations for present (1961-1990) and future climate scenario (2041-2070) have been performed using the regional climate model RegCM. The initial and boundary conditions were provided from the global circulation model EH5OM. The RegCM present climate is verified against the climatology of selected stations with the aim to assess the possible (systematic) errors in the regional model and define confidence limits for scenario runs. The climate change is studied by analysis of the differences between future and present bioclimate focusing to physiologically equivalent temperature (PET).

bioclimatic conditions; climate change; Adriatic coast

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