engleski

Response of snow parameters relevant for winter tourism to climate change

Croatia’ s highland area belonging to the Dinaric Alps is still not recognized nor valorized according to its possibilities suitable for winter tourism development. Although not higher than 1900 m (only 85 square kilometers of Croatian land is above 1500 m), it is suitable for tourists’ stay, not only during summer season, but during other periods of the year, especially during winter season. Snow conditions including thickness of snow cover as well as its duration, are sufficient and they enable the development of winter tourism, oriented mainly on snow related activities such as cross-country skiing or snow mobiling rather than on downhill skiing only. Ski resorts are relatively small, both considering their capacity and equipment, especially in comparison to alpine ski resorts. As shown for the European Alps, small resorts at lower altitudes are in particular sensitive on negative changes in winter conditions. The increase of temperature extremes and, at the same time, the decrease in precipitation in winter, mountain destinations could decrease the economic effects from tourism and, at the same time, increase the adaptation costs and necessary investments in winter tourism supply. This paper deals with time analysis (fluctuations and trends) in different meteorological parameters related to snow (air temperature, total precipitation and air pressure) as well as snow parameters (snow cover frequency, duration and magnitude) themselves. The research contains not only the analysis of snow cover relevant for alpine skiing at higher altitudes (snow cover greater than 30 cm), but also those (snow cover greater than 10 cm) necessary for development of winter skiing tourism (cross-country skiing or snow mobiling) at lower altitudes. Its correlation to temperature and precipitation in relation to altitude for a whole winter ski season and for particular school holiday weeks would enable further estimates of snow changes that should be incorporated in tourism plans. The results presented in this paper refer to Gorski kotar, a mountain district in central Croatia, which is one of the potential ski resorts considered in the development plan of winter and mountain tourism in Croatia, that is currently working on. Winter climate change has been studied by analysis of snow parameter attained by dynamical downscaling. Using the regional climate model RegCM, two sets of winter integrations for present (1961-1990) and future (2041-2070) climate scenario have been performed. The initial and boundary conditions were provided from the global circulation model EH5OM. The climate change is studied by analysis of the differences between future and present climate focusing to snow and meteorological parameters related to it.

snow parameters; winter tourism; climate change; Croatia

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