engleski

Application of stochastical approach in deterministic calculation of geological risk : Case study from Drava depression

There is well-established calculation procedure for geological risk (or Probability Of Success, abbr. POS) for any new or existing play or prospect in any petroleum province. This is already an old-fashion tool, but still applicable for practical calculation in many oil and gas companies or consulting firms. Modern approaches include several probabilities or probability curve expressed on different ways. One of them, based on geostatistical approach, is using of stochastical simulation through numerous realizations for obtaining several possible values for sampled area. Deterministical POS is calculated as multiplication of more or less standard geological categories. Some of them (like value of porosities or reservoir quality) are usually expressed through the maps. Each such category (based on mapped data) can be observed through many possible and equiprobable realizations. This parameter is varied stochastically and finally selected like several (3, 5 or more) numerical values. It means that final POS could be expressed with several results ; but the most often like minimal, median and maximal POS. Here is presented example of such calculation based on data from the Croatian part of Pannonian basin.

geological risk; porosity; stochastic; Pannonian basin

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