engleski

A Decision Support Information System for Operational Prediction of Wildfire Behaviour

Every year during hot summer months vegetation wildfires occur on the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea. Understanding behavioural characteristics of wildfires and how they spread through various terrains and vegetation types, as well as the lack of information about the current state and dynamic spreading of fire, play an important role in developing effective firefighting strategies. Here, a concept of an information system is proposed, which includes software that can estimate the propagation and intensity of spreading wildfires. We used the vegetation fire growth simulation software Farsite to simulate the spatiotemporal occurence of two historical vegetation fires that occurred on Adriatic islands. Farsite was chosen because it is the most versatile, supporting detailed spatial variations in relief and vegetation, as well as spatiotemporal variations of meteorological and agrometeorological (fuel moisture) conditions. Also, it featured the most advanced treatment of multiple fire occurrences, merging/overlapping fire lines and enclaves. Various simulation results can be exported to several formats supported by standard GIS software. The required spatial data (digital terrain model, GIS data about settlements, roads, water and other significant objects), vegetation, agrometeorological and local meteorological data were obtained from various national agencies. Since these data were gathered from different sources using different methods, we describe the data and methods used for processing and interpretation of spatial data customized for use in the decision support system for firefighting and operative headquarters. The historical fire perimeters were obtained by firefighting commanders. By selecting appropriate fuel models from the extended set of fuel models in Farsite, we obtained a very good match between the simulated fire perimeters and observed ones. Additionally, we present a cartographic representation of the predicted fire propagation perimeters in an interactive three-dimensional cartographic environment. The research is presented and experiences were gained within the frame of the project System for the multisensor airborne reconnaissance and surveillance in crisis situations and the protection of environment supported by the Ministry of Science, Education and Sport of the Republic of Croatia. I participated on the project as a postgraduate student. The project was also a voluntary study course of the first year of the postgraduate doctoral studies at the Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb.

fires; simulation; prediction; information system; cartographic

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