engleski

The Time Path of Inflation in Croatia

In the paper the time paths of the Croatian rate of inflation are estimated. The model is based on three first-order differential i.e. difference equations and on the adaptive expectation hypothesis, what results with second-order differential i.e. difference equations for each variable. The data of the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment are used for parameters estimation, while the expected rate of inflation is estimated by VAR model. The parameters of adaptive-expectations equations are estimated by standard method and by Monte Carlo simulations, the basic assumptions to be fulfilled. On the basis of the estimated time paths the stability and convergence analysis is done for the rate of inflation.

inflation ; unemployment ; differential and difference equations ; VAR ; Monte Carlo simulations

nije evidentirano