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Economic Impact of Climate Variability in Berry Fruit - a Decision Analysis Approach (CROSBI ID 155387)

Prilog u časopisu | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija

Njavro, Mario ; Duralija, Boris Economic Impact of Climate Variability in Berry Fruit - a Decision Analysis Approach // Acta horticulturae, 838 (2009), 115-127

Podaci o odgovornosti

Njavro, Mario ; Duralija, Boris

engleski

Economic Impact of Climate Variability in Berry Fruit - a Decision Analysis Approach

The environmental risks are constantly changing for agribusiness. Weather risks are a major source of uncertainty. The occurrence of adverse weather events increased in the last decade is likely to continue increasing due to climate change. However, producers should also take account of the economic instability such as price changes, changes in supply networks, employment and insurance availability. Assessments of climate change on Croatian agriculture suggest that climate change will have positive effects on the increase in yields and quality of agricultural crops in continental part of Croatia. Nevertheless, crops will be threatened by higher air temperatures and the shortage of water during summer period. Researches on berry production have not been conduced yet. The objective of the paper is to assess economic impact of climate variability on berry production, namely strawberry and blackberry in the continental part of Croatia. The factors that will be taken in consideration are increase in mean temperatures, changes in precipitation, increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and greater weather variability (change in beginning and end of growing season). To achieve the mentioned goals, quantitative and qualitative decision management methods will be used. Approach will be based on the steps in risk management: 1) Identify risk, 2) Risk Assessment and 3) Select risk management strategies. Stochastic budgets will encompass uncertain factors like yield, growing/harvesting season, irrigation cost and prices. In the scarcity of data sources, base for budgeting was founded on empirical results from previous projects ran by Department of pomology and experts opinions. The paper aims to help berry producers to cope with increasing uncertainty related to climate risk by establishing a process of efficient risk management.

climate; variability; berry fruit; decision

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Podaci o izdanju

838

2009.

115-127

objavljeno

0567-7572

Povezanost rada

Poljoprivreda (agronomija)

Indeksiranost