engleski

How to interpret results of on-line risk monitoring?

This paper is presenting empirical comparison between Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) results for the so-called average model and for the realistic model. From the one side average PRA model is regularly used model which is modeling average behavior of the all-modeling parameters during one-year period. On the other side realistic PRA model is considering various plant configurations and other important conditions that are changing during one-year period. Results are obtained for the specific modeling segment related to the plant safety power supply. Diesel generators are regularly maintained during the year, and probability for initiating event loss of offsite power (LOOP) is changing depending on the power grid state and weather conditions. Influences of these two facts are quantified and result presented. Two different PRA models with two different resolutions were used. Both results are showing that even for the worst scenario (DG is maintained during the highest LOOP likelihood) averaged result from realistic model is smaller than result obtained by average model. Results are also showing that extreme instantaneous values are easily avoidable which also reduces cumulative probability.

probabilistic safety assessment; PSA

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