engleski

Prediction of time dependent standby failure rates for periodically tested components taking into account the operational history

The paper studies prediction of time dependent standby failure rate, taking into account operational history of a component which can be used in applications such as system modeling in a probabilistic safety analysis in order to evaluate the impact of equipment aging and maintenance strategies on the risk measures (e.g. reactor core damage frequency) considered. Time dependent model for standby failure rate is defined based on Weibull distribution and the principles of proportional age reduction by equipment overhauls. Estimation of the parameters which determine the standby failure rate is considered, including the definition of the operational history model and likelihood function for Bayesian analysis of parameters for periodically tested standby repairable component. Operational history is provided as a time axis with defined times of overhauls, surveillance tests and failures. Assessment of time dependent unavailability due to failure of periodically tested standby component is described. An example for demonstration purposes is provided with prediction of future behavior for seven different operational histories.

time dependent; standy; failure rate; operational history

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