engleski

Predicting downturn: Are Tendency Surveys a Good Estimator of Retail Activity in Croatia?

This paper examines the power of business and consumer survey indicators in predicting retail activity in Croatia. An overview of business and consumer surveys is presented at the beginning of the paper followed by detail elaboration of methodology used. The main model used for the analysis is a bivariate vector autoregression VAR together with causality tests, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition. Results have revealed that a statistically significant relationship exists between certain survey indicators and macroeconomic variables measuring retail activity. However their negative relationship was quite unexpected.

Business and consumer survey ; vector autoregression model ; retail activity

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