engleski

Short-run Forecasting of Industrial Production and Inventories of Finished Products in Industry in the Republic of Croatia,

The aim of the paper is to define appropriate forecasting models for industrial production (as the reference series of aggregate economic activity) and inventories for finished products in the Republic of Croatia. Using a sample period from January 1988 to February 1995, the analysis is performed in two steps. In the first step, adequate seasonal ARIMA models for ln-transormed series are defined, as well as several intervention models. In the second step, the models are compared. Finally, the models with the smallest forecasting errors are chosen as the final models to be employed for forecasting Croatian industrial production and inventories for finished products.

Forecasting; intervention analysis; industrial production; inventories; ARIMA model

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