engleski

Comparison of three models for predicting emergence patterns of the olive moth, Prays oleae Bern. (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) in two regions of Croatia

Olive moth (Prays oleae Bern.) is an economically important pest of olive trees throughout Mediterranean region, including Croatia. In Croatia olives are growing across the Adriatic coast from the south (Dalmatia) and in Istria what is the most northern area of olives growing. Geographical position and climatic factors have an important role on olive moth distribution. The goal of the research was to compare three models: degree-day accumulation, olive tree phenology and pheromone trap catches for predicting emergence patterns of olive moth in two regions of Croatia. The research was conducted from 2007 to 2009 in two regions: Dalmatia and Istria. Each region included 5 olive growing sites. The population dynamics was monitored using pheromone traps (Csalomon). Traps were set up at mid April and monitoring lasted until November. Traps were inspected once per week. Climatic conditions about air temperature and rainfall were taken from the nearest meteorological stations. Starting with January 1st by the use the lower developmental temperature of 10.85˚C the degree-day accumulation was calculated. The data on olive tree phenology were collected at each trap inspection date. We will analyze the differences in appearance of each generation among the models and regions. The accuracies of degree days and olive tree phenology models will be described in terms of mean absolute error and the most appropriate model will be suggested.

Dalmatia; degree day accumulation; Istria; olive tree phenology; pheromones; population dynamic; Prays oleae

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