engleski

Computational uncertainties of ship hull girder reliability modelling

The aim of this paper is to investigate the computational uncertainties by applying different methods in reliability analysis of ship hull girder. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposals for hull girder reliability assessment are undertaken for probabilistic modelling of ship ultimate strength under combined longitudinal still water and wave bending moments both for hogging and sagging conditions. The example in the paper considers a typical service profile of a chemical tanker in as-built state and in corroded hull condition. The three methods of reliability analysis are compared in the paper: the First Order Second Moment (FOSM), the Advanced First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The conclusions resume the results of comparison of applied methods and discuss the appropriateness of numerical reliability methods on digital computers in ship hull girder safety assessments.

hull girder; reliability; uncertainty; FOSM; FORM; MCS; chemical tanker

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