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Analyzing Ethnic Conflict and Peace Dynamics: Quantitative and Qualitative Aspects

Different aspects and (dis)advantages of the use of qualitative and quantitative methods in studying ethnic relations will be presented in the analysis of the case of conflict and peace processes in some multiethnic areas in Croatia. The paper starts with a brief overview of the use of different methods, separately or combined, in research aimed at explaining processes and dynamics of phenomena covered by research in historiography and historical sociology. The authors especially focus on the understanding of the importance of studying time as a dynamic process, through time series, i.e. quantitatively, or narrative interviews / oral history, i.e. qualitatively. The central question is: what are (dis)advantages of the both methods in the attempt at explaining of causality of social phenomena such as conflict and peace between different ethnic groups? In the second part of the paper a possible answer to the question will be pursued on the example of research on conflict and peace areas in Croatia in 1990s. A particular attention will be given to how quantitative and how qualitative analysis of the attitudes of respondents elucidates processes predating conflict and peace respectively, and the dynamics of conflict and peace on the whole. Also, is it true that – as claimed by many authors – qualitative analysis is inclined more to theoretical approaches such as ethnomethodology, constructionism, and path dependence, and is less deterministic, while quantitative analysis prefers functionalism, rational choice and similar, i.e. more deterministic, approaches? Does the case-study in Croatia corroborate such theoretical-methodological alignments? If so, what the combination of the use of different methods, as demonstrated in the case-study, elicits theoretically? Just another portion of eclecticism or an opportunity for creating a new theoretical approach?

Ethnic Conflict; Ethnic Peace; Croatia; Qualitative Aspects; Quantitative Aspects

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