engleski

The statistical analysis of wet and dry spells in Croatia by binary DARMA (1, 1) model

In this work the Discrete Autoregressive Moving Average Model (DARMA(1, 1)) has been used to describe the wet-dry day sequences in Croatia. The dryness or wetness of a time period (e.g. a month) can be determined using daily precipitation data. Nevertheless, in some cases these estimates may give a wrong impression, and therefore monitoring the number of wet and dry days is important as well. The First-order Markov Chain (DAR(1)) has also been used and compared to DARMA(1, 1) results. The daily precipitation data from the Split- Marjan, Rijeka, Zagreb-Grič and Osijek meteorological stations during the 1948Σ2000 period have been used. The importance of the autocorrelation coefficient as a measure of persistence has been emphasized.

wet and dry spells; DARMA(1; 1) model; DAR(1) model; coefficient of persistency

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