engleski

New Industrial Confidence Indicators and Croatian Industrial Production

In this paper some modifications in calculation Croatian ICI in accordance with the specificity of Croatian economy are made. Two new Indicators are calculated. One of them is the simple arithmetic average of seasonally adjusted weighted relative frequencies of negative answers on three variables components of ICI. The second one is the simple arithmetic average of seasonally adjusted weighted relative frequencies of positive answers for the same variable mentioned above. The aim of this paper is to investigate the correlation between original and modified ICI and industrial production (expressed as a rate of change in the same quarter in previous year). Various econometric models were defined using the quarterly series of industrial production and ICI from 2005, first quarter to 2010 first quarter. It can be concluded that the econometric models with new Composite indicators are more appropriate to explain and predict changes in Croatian industrial production with one and two quarters ahead in the period before and during recession.

Business survey; Industrial Confidence Indicator; Econometric model; Croatia

nije evidentirano