engleski

Demographic Ageing and its Economic Consequences in Croatia

The paper describes the most pronounced features of demographic changes in the recent history of the Republic of Croatia, emphasizing main drivers of decline of the Croatian population. In the elaboration of recent demographic trends the country specific phenomena affecting demographic developments are discerned from the more universal phenomena. After that, the paper presents basic variants of the demographic projections for the period up to 2050, pointing at those elements of the demographic projections that could have important implications on future economic developments such as fiscal sustainability, labour market trends, and consequently, on economic growth. After that, the paper tries to identify possibilities of mitigating potentially detrimental impact of demographic changes on the economy, by implementing reforms in the most vulnerable areas – labour market, health system and pension system. The paper concludes with the finding that negative effects of demographic ageing could be mitigated if the government recognizes long-term demographic developments and reacts timely by implementing carefully designed policy measures and by supporting adequate information campaigns.

demographic ageing, demographic projections, Croatia, fiscal sustainability, economic growth, labour market

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