engleski

Meteorological features of extreme precipitation in the Northern Adriatic

This paper explores extreme precipitation in the northern Adriatic area. The case is considered as extreme when there is over 100 mm/24h of measured precipitation. Estimations based on long time series of precipitation parameters showed that return period for the occurrence of extreme daily rainfall amount exceeding 100 mm/24h is about 10 years or more for the northern Adriatic weather stations (Gajić-Čapka and Čapka, 1997). In that case, extreme precipitation event can be considered as the rather rare phenomenon. The main goal of this paper is to present meteorological features and causes of extreme precipitation in the northern Adriatic. The attention is paid to their large-scale forcing and mesoscale structure. During the 10-year period (1991-2000) 18 extreme precipitation events exceeding 100 mm/24h were observed on the six available meteorological stations in the northern Adriatic. There were two occasions on which over 200 mm/24h were recorded. Two specific cases are chosen for detailed analysis intended to reveal large-scale and mesoscale weather factors likely responsible for the extremity of 24-hour rainfall. The large-scale analysis of synoptic systems is made using ECMWF model data, while the mesoscale analysis is based on the ALADIN and HRID forecast models. The capability of the ALADIN model to predict heavy precipitation events over the eastern side of the Alps during MAP (Mesoscale Alpine Program) was verified by intercomparison of the HRID vertical time cross-sections based on radio sounding measurements and ALADIN/LACE prognostic Temps (Ivančan-Picek et al., 2003).

extreme precipitation; meteorological features; northern Adriatic

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