engleski

ALADIN model simulations of the severe convective precipitation event in Pula on 25th September 2010

ALADIN model simulations of the severe precipitation event in Istria on 25th September 2010. The operational ALADIN forecast is run with 8 km horizontal resolution, it uses ARPEGE initial and boundary conditions and digital filter initialization. The parallel suite uses initial conditions obtained from data assimilation cycle. Alternatively, the initial and boundary conditions from IFS model were used with surface assimilation only and with 3Dvar. The results show that 3Dvar improves the precipitation forecast in Istria for 8 km resolution run. Several experiments using high-resolution (2 km) non-hydrostatic ALADIN model runs have been performed. The experiment where the prognostic parametrization of convection has been used have indicated the existence of the secondary maximum over the Istrian land. Most of the precipitation was given by the convection scheme. This result suggests the importance of using the convective parametrization even in the resolutions in which it is assumed that the convection is resolved.

severe rain; flash flood; convection

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