engleski

How to predict cargo handling times at the sea port affected by weather conditions

Safe implementation of the decisions regarding the potential uncertainties in port loading operations requires the anticipation of all the aspects of loading. However, loading operations that are designed as new maritime projects have not always been supported by extensive practical experience. This paper discusses the case study of Punta Arenas loading terminal, reviewing potential issues related to building such a terminal and providing answers applicable to similar cases. When planning the construction of loading terminals at places exposed to harsh weather conditions, it is necessary to define economic and weather aspects. Building a loading terminal in Punta Arenas represents a demanding venture due to exceptionally hard weather conditions affecting the area. The quantitative uncertainties in loading operations can be presented by simulations. Probabilistic simulation is a process explicitly presenting the uncertainties by defining the information input as a distribution of probability of error. If the inputs describe an uncertain system, the forecast of future results is necessary. The results are obtained on the basis of the available information that represents the stated distribution. For the purpose of the probability simulation, the Monte Carlo method is often used, and has therefore been chosen for this research. The main results of the research shall be quantified as the probability of failure in the ship loading operation, with the focus on selected input systems, in the context of difficult weather conditions and unfavourable location of the port of loading. These findings are highly useful to the decision-makers since the latter are able to use the simulation results as a backing for decisions related to the ship loading.

terminal construction; Monte Carlo simulation; weather conditions; port aspects

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