engleski

Verification, climate change and variability of European temperature and precipitation: focus over Croatia and the first CORDEX results

The RegCM3 model has been used to dynamically downscale the three-member ECH5OM ensemble over Europe. Downscaling was performed for present climate (1961-1990, P0) and future climate (2011-2040, P1) under the A2 scenario. The P0 period was verified by using CRU dataset for all seasons. Verification for the part of the domain covering Croatia additionally included the comparison of downscaled temperature and precipitation climatology with station data as well as basic statistics of extreme events. RegCM3 was successful in capturing the contrasts between the continental and coastal parts of Croatia but the actual differences between simulated and station data are variable and season dependent. Further analysis focused on the comparison of the P0 climatology and extreme events statistics with those in the near future P1 period. The second experiment consisted of forcing RegCM3 with ERA-Interim on the CORDEX European domain for the period 1989-2009. Potential sources of warm bias in the north- eastern part of the domain are discussed.

RegCM; climate change; CORDEX

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