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Monetary policy and business cycles in Croatia (CROSBI ID 48479)

Prilog u knjizi | izvorni znanstveni rad

Benazić, Manuel ; Tomić, Daniel Monetary policy and business cycles in Croatia // The Future of Economics: Between Rules and Discretion / Gonan Božac, Marli ; Ribnikar Ivan (ur.). Pula: Sveučilište Jurja Dobrile u Puli, 2013. str. 151-179

Podaci o odgovornosti

Benazić, Manuel ; Tomić, Daniel

engleski

Monetary policy and business cycles in Croatia

Inconsistency in macroeconomic policy and government failures in recognizing potential development moments lead to 'decision-making dilemma' ; should economic policy be determined by a legislation rule or by a policymaker's discretion? The fundamental framework for evaluation of monetary policy is a degree in which it effectively interprets expectation of economic agents about the macroeconomic outcomes. Monetary actions are thus based on asymmetric mis/information in which public expectations are formed defining changes in macroeconomic variables and expected policy course in future. What economic logic should monetary authority impose then? If it imposes a rule, central bank has to follow it in a medium or long-run regardless of the current economic situation. On the other hand, if it chooses discretion as a monetary instrument, central bank gains a right to act in accordance to its own assessment having the possibility to deviate from long-run objectives in order to satisfy some short run goals. Though these terms look profoundly different, they are mutually determined, since a rule is in fact a restriction on the monetary authority discretion. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy in defining business cycles in Croatia, i.e. can it and in what way determine the cyclical movements of Croatian economy. Using Hodrick-Prescott filter for detrending selected macroeconomic variables, this paper gives a reflection on the past relationship between the characteristics of Croatian monetary policy and business cycles in order to identify the difference within a rule vs. discretion dilemma surrounding monetary policy of Croatian central bank. Namely, by revealing the ‘complexity’ of monetary policy in Croatia, we provide a framework for economic reasoning which economic agents could apply within their future decisions.

monetary policy, business cycles, rule vs. discretion, Hodrick-Prescott filter, expectations, Croatia

Zbornik radova doktorskog studija Sveučilišta Jurja dobrile u Puli s međunarodnim urednicima, uređivačkim odborom i recenzentima. Book is a part of postgraduate doctoral study at the Juraj Dobrila University of Pula ; international editors, editorial board and reviewers.

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Podaci o prilogu

151-179.

objavljeno

Podaci o knjizi

The Future of Economics: Between Rules and Discretion

Gonan Božac, Marli ; Ribnikar Ivan

Pula: Sveučilište Jurja Dobrile u Puli

2013.

978-953-7498-71-9

Povezanost rada

Ekonomija