engleski

Mediterranean climate in historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations using different PBL schemes in RegCM4.3 model

Sensitivity of RegCM4.3 to two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes driven by different reference concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is analysed. RegCM4.3 at the 50-km horizontal resolution was forced by the HadGEM2-ES historical simulation from 1971 to November 2005 over the Mediterranean region and with HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 boundary conditions from December 2005 to November 2099. The annual mean surface net shortwave energy flux is unchanged in simulations of the late 20th and entire 21st centuries under both scenarios, regardless to the PBL scheme used, and an increasing trend in surface net longwave energy flux is balanced by the decreasing trends in sensible and latent heat fluxes. Thus, in order to keep surface energy budget in balance, energy loss via turbulent eddies is becoming more important in scenario runs. Different PBL schemes have different impact on the RegCM4.3 mean climate, but interannual variability and trends are generally unaffected. The increase in the mean T2m during the 21st century depends on the choice of the RCP: 3°C increase in RCP4.5 and 6°C increase in RCP8.5 are simulated.

RegCM; RCP; PBL; climate change

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