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Assessment of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Applicability in Croatia (CROSBI ID 613064)

Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija

Keglević Kozjak, Suzana ; Šestanj-Perić, Tanja ; Bešvir, Bruno Assessment of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Applicability in Croatia // An Enterprise Odyssey: Leadership, Innovation and Development for Responsible Economy : proceedings / Galetić, Lovorka ; Spremić, Mario ; Šimurina, Jurica (ur.). Zagreb: Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 2014. str. 77-78

Podaci o odgovornosti

Keglević Kozjak, Suzana ; Šestanj-Perić, Tanja ; Bešvir, Bruno

engleski

Assessment of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Applicability in Croatia

The objective of this paper is to answer the question whether the use of well-known forecasting models can predict bankruptcy of companies in Croatia. The models applied are: Altman’s Z’-Score, Springate model, FP Rating model, BEX index, Kralicek’s Quicktest and Bonitest, all of them being accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models. Our hypothesis was that domestically developed models would be better predictors of bankruptcy. The analysis confirms that for most of the bankrupt companies all the models predicted bankruptcy even four years before the actual bankruptcy occurring. However, in most cases better predictors of bankruptcy were foreign models. By comparing the outcomes resulting from the application of the simple scoring models Bonitest and Quicktest we conclude that Bonitest model developed for Croatian market performs better than Kralicek’s Quicktest, the model developed on German-speaking area. In contrast, the multiple discriminant analysis models FP Rating model and BEX index developed using Croatian companies’ data show less precision when predicting bankruptcy for medium companies in Croatia than foreign models Altman’s Z’-Score and Springate model. Based on the results we believe it would be reasonable to revise the applicability of existing domestically developed models.

financial statements ; bankruptcy ; manufacturing ; bankruptcy prediction models

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Podaci o prilogu

77-78.

2014.

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objavljeno

978-953-6025-91-6

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

An Enterprise Odyssey: Leadership, Innovation and Development for Responsible Economy : proceedings

Galetić, Lovorka ; Spremić, Mario ; Šimurina, Jurica

Zagreb: Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu

Podaci o skupu

7th International Conference: An Enterprise Odyssey: Leadership, Innovation and Development for Responsible Economy

ostalo

04.06.2014-07.06.2014

Zadar, Hrvatska

Povezanost rada

Ekonomija