engleski

The First Round of Eastern Enlargement of the EU: POssible Implications for Croatian Trade

The objective of the paper is to examine possible impact of the next EU enlargement on Croatia's trade links, and to analyse alternative options for Croatia's participation in the integration process. Trade integration opportunities within the region (Western Balkans), with "would-be" EU members and "pre-in" countries is examined. The paper rests on the hypothesis that the EU will start adhering new members from the year 2002. It identifies candidates that have the best prospects for joining the EU in the first round of eastern enlargement. Than it analyses the possible effect of enlargement on Croatian economy as a whole and on sectoral level. Finally, it examines different options for participation in the integration process. The candidates that have the best prospects for joining the EU are identified on the grounds of their recent performance towards meeting EU membership criteria, as formulated in the Commission's regular reports and on the grounds of the EU's possibility to adhere them. Possible effects of enlargement on the most important sectors for Croatia's export to the EU is analysed on the grounds of relative comparative advantages of producers from Croatia compared with the candidates and achieved level of inter-industry trade (RCA and GL indices). The same method is used in examining trade integration opportunities.

EU enlargement; trade; Croatia

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