engleski

Probabilistic Models of Ultimate Strength Reduction of Damaged Ship

The aim of this paper is to develop a probabilistic model of the reduction of the bending moment capacity of an oil tanker following grounding and collision accidents. The approach is based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using the probability distributions of damage parameters proposed by International Maritime Organization (IMO). The reduction of the ultimate strength in the case of a grounding is calculated by existing design equations using the concept of grounding damage index (GDI), assuming grounding on the conically shaped rock. Design equations for collision damage are originally developed in the present paper assuming rectangular box damage. The modified Paik-Mansour method is employed for residual strength assessment when developing design equations. A case study is presented for Aframax tanker resulting in the Weibull probability distributions fitted to the histograms of residual strength obtained by MC simulation. The obtained probability distributions are intended for structural reliability assessment of damaged ships.

Damaged tanker ; ultimate strength ; regression equation

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