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Does increasing the resolution of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction models enhance reproduction of wind regimes in the complex terrain? (CROSBI ID 629222)

Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa | međunarodna recenzija

Hrastinski, Mario ; Horvath, Kristian ; Odak Plenković, Iris ; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan ; Bajić, Alica Does increasing the resolution of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction models enhance reproduction of wind regimes in the complex terrain?. 2015

Podaci o odgovornosti

Hrastinski, Mario ; Horvath, Kristian ; Odak Plenković, Iris ; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan ; Bajić, Alica

engleski

Does increasing the resolution of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction models enhance reproduction of wind regimes in the complex terrain?

In the complex terrain of Eastern Adriatic where wind climate is governed by regional/local winds, it is beneficial to utilize a chain of numerical models to refine the associated wind predictions. The principal questions we address are i) whether an increase of model resolution improves the accuracy and ii) could simplified and computationally cheaper Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (MNWP) models be used in the model chain for assessment and forecasting of wind properties? To answer the above questions, wind forecasts from Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational (ALADIN) MNWP model with 8 km horizontal grid spacing were used in period 2010-2012. Those forecasts were further refined to 2 km grid spacing using: i) full physics based model, and ii) so-called dynamical adaptation method (DADA) over subdomain that covers broader area around Croatia. Statistical and spectral verification were performed for three different forecasting setups using measured wind speeds from several meteorological stations that represent different climate regions of Croatia. Based on variety of statistical scores and spectral measures inferred in frequency domain, it is suggested that the results generally improved with increasing the model resolution. The largest portion of errors can be attributed to phase errors, while the most significant increase of accuracy was found for diurnal periods of motions. Furthermore, a correlation between phase error and spectral measures of model performance at different temporal scales was found. Simplified DADA forecasts have proven to be valuable in forecasting wind propertirs on majority of stations, except for those near the very coast and steep terrain where full-physics based model was more successful in representing regional/local wind systems. Finally, kinetic energy, vorticity and divergence spectra were analyzed to provide a scale-dependent measure of model performance as well as to study the gross effects of horizontal diffusion on the effective model resolution.

complex terrain; local winds; ALADIN model; statistical verification; spectral verification

IPA projekt WILL4WIND, IPA2007/HR/16IPO/001-040507

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Podaci o prilogu

2015.

objavljeno

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

Podaci o skupu

5th International Conference on Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean

predavanje

02.03.2015-04.03.2015

Istanbul, Turska

Povezanost rada

Geologija

Poveznice