engleski

Influence of large scale district heating systems on future energy systems and the role of heat demand mapping

INTRODUCTION Highly efficient cogeneration and district heating and cooling systems have a significant potential for primary energy savings which are still highly underutilized in the EU. They also represent a very important factor when it comes to the planning of future energy systems because of their potential to increase the flexibility of the overall system and therefore enable a higher level of the utilization of intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and PV. The European Commission recognized the aforementioned advantages, which is made obvious by the Energy Efficiency Directive which clearly states that every member state has to conduct a detailed analysis for the utilization of highly efficient cogeneration and district heating and cooling systems. AIMS The goal of this work is to develop, present and utilize a heating demand mapping methodology as well the mapping of waste heat sources available for district heating utilization in order to assess the potential for its economic utilization. The obtained data have been used to develop energy scenarios and assess the impact such systems can have on the energy system as a whole, primarily focused on the reduction of the overall energy system cost, the increase of the share of intermittent renewables, security of supply trough the reduction of the utilization of non-renewable fuels and the reduction of CO2 emissions. METHODS The developed mapping of heating demand methodology demonstrated within this work is mostly focused on publicly available data on building locations and areas as well as some information obtained from district heating operators and city officials. The influence of district heating on the energy system as a whole has been handled through a scenario analysis using the EnergyPLAN modelling tool. Several scenarios have been created and compared in order to achieve this demonstrating individual systems, district heating and power to heat technologies. EXPECTED SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTION The work will show the potential district heating systems have on the increase in the utilization of renewable energy sources both in the heating and power sectors, increase in the security of supply and reduction of CO2 emissions. Even though similar work has already been done for some EU countries, primarily Denmark and Sweden, Croatia is an interesting case for such an analysis due to its climate and demographic conditions. The results obtained from this work will be utilized in future work to analyse in detail the impact individual aspects such as the distribution of population, locations of potential waste heat and renewable heat sources, climate conditions and the cost of the installation, operation and maintenance of district heating systems have on the optimal share of such systems. The analysis will be universally applicable and demonstrated on several cases.

Energy planning; District heating; Heat demand mapping

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